{"F": {"ts_code": "301296.SZ", "name": "新巨丰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.46, "pe_ttm": 332.7418, "pb": 1.035, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 276191.8736, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.8, 27.3, 17.2, 21.7, 23.8, 19.1], "rev_series": [10.1, 12.4, 16.1, 17.4, 17.1, 29.3], "np_series": [1.7, 1.6, 1.7, 1.7, 1.8, 0.4], "roe_series": [18.0, 14.8, 9.6, 7.4, 7.6, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 11.2, "gm_median": 21.7, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -17.6, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 14.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.6, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 22.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 55.3, "debt_mv": 82.1, "payout": 13.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.1, "np_cagr3": -36.4, "rev_yoy": 26.1, "np_yoy": -60.0, "np_vol": 31.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 29.8, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 1016.0, "fwd_g2": 65.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["无菌包装", 25.0], ["液态奶无菌包装", 21.0], ["无菌包装：液态奶无菌包装", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.9, "ret_ytd": -24.2, "ret_pivot": -4.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -22.4, "ret_250": -32.4, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 27.6, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 38, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 332.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 11.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 332.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "新巨丰:PE 比行业中位高 293.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.1个百分点。"]}}