{"F": {"ts_code": "301295.SZ", "name": "美硕科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.72, "pe_ttm": 76.8003, "pb": 3.882, "dv_ttm": 0.5567, "total_mv": 380217.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 24.0, 23.7, 22.6, 17.6, 16.3], "rev_series": [4.6, 5.8, 5.4, 5.3, 6.3, 7.1], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [42.4, 30.4, 22.9, 6.7, 2.8, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 22.6, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.6, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.88, "capex_dep": 1.19, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 30.1, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 88.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": -30.0, "rev_yoy": 26.9, "np_yoy": 154.6, "np_vol": 15.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 66.2, "fwd_pe2": 41.9, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["继电器", 46.0], ["流体电磁阀", 3.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.7, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": 27.5, "ret_pivot": 125.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.9, "ret_60": -17.2, "ret_120": 8.0, "ret_250": 35.9, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 58.5, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 46, "hard": 23, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 76.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 66.2 倍,次年 41.9 倍,PEG 1.14。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -17% / 8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "美硕科技:PE 比行业中位高 33.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}