{"F": {"ts_code": "301293.SZ", "name": "三博脑科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医院", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230505", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.91, "pe_ttm": 226.3685, "pb": 4.5019, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1069278.517, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.0, 24.1, 21.7, 22.4, 23.5, 23.3], "rev_series": [9.9, 11.4, 10.7, 13.1, 14.3, 17.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [7.1, 7.0, 5.4, 4.4, 4.5, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 18.9, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 4.5, "capex_dep": 4.41, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 32.2, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 23.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 10.1, "rev_yoy": 17.4, "np_yoy": -53.0, "np_vol": 22.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 144.2, "fwd_pe2": 89.5, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 61.0, "peg": 2.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["医疗服务", 34.0], ["销售药品", 11.0], ["药品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.7, "ret_prev2_year": -9.8, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": 69.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.6, "ret_60": 0.8, "ret_120": -40.9, "ret_250": -16.0, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 59.6, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 77, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 226.4 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 4.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 226.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 1% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "三博脑科:PE 比行业中位高 153.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.5个百分点。"]}}