{"F": {"ts_code": "301292.SZ", "name": "海科新源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.3, "pe_ttm": 49.3024, "pb": 4.4072, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1365738.254, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 31.3, 20.0, 8.4, 0.0, 3.2], "rev_series": [16.6, 30.7, 30.3, 33.6, 36.1, 50.5], "np_series": [1.5, 6.1, 2.8, 0.3, -2.7, -1.8], "roe_series": [18.8, 40.4, 14.5, 1.2, -8.9, -6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.9, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 11.6, "gm_stab": -0.38, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.9, "fix_assets": 40.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.41, "capex_dep": 0.28, "interest_debt": 32.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 62.8, "debt_mv": 23.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 45.0, "np_yoy": 1068.1, "np_vol": 418.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.8, "fwd_g1": 267.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["碳酸酯系列", 21.0], ["碳酸酯类产品", 21.0], ["其他类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 392.4, "ret_prev2_year": -32.9, "ret_ytd": -4.8, "ret_pivot": 438.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": -4.1, "ret_120": -4.9, "ret_250": 198.7, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 98.4, "pos_52w": 57.4}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 11, "hard": 75, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 -38%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 -38%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 199%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 98%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -4% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "海科新源:PE 比行业中位高 13.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点。"]}}