{"F": {"ts_code": "301290.SZ", "name": "东星医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.09, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3075, "dv_ttm": 1.0521, "total_mv": 281386.7997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.5, 57.4, 52.3, 48.3, 49.4, 48.6], "rev_series": [3.7, 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, 4.4, 3.9], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, -0.4], "roe_series": [9.9, 10.7, 6.3, 4.4, 4.3, -1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 49.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 23.0, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 18.2, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 2.0, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 9.3, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 61.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.6, "np_yoy": 12.7, "np_vol": 60.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 23.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 68.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["微创吻合器系列产品", 36.0], ["吻合器零配件", 16.0], ["吻合器", 16.0], ["耗材销售-低值耗材", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.8, "ret_prev2_year": -14.4, "ret_ytd": 12.5, "ret_pivot": 58.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": -2.8, "ret_250": 3.9, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 39.2, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 23, "bondness": 51}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 9%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.4%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -4% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "东星医疗:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}