{"F": {"ts_code": "301289.SZ", "name": "国缆检测", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "检测服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.37, "pe_ttm": 36.6381, "pb": 3.3644, "dv_ttm": 0.9464, "total_mv": 346086.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.6, 62.5, 62.6, 60.7, 60.0, 59.6], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.2, 2.1, 2.6, 3.0, 3.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [19.3, 20.6, 11.4, 8.1, 7.8, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.5, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 60.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 30.7, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 3.86, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 19.5, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.9, "np_cagr3": 5.4, "rev_yoy": 12.4, "np_yoy": 19.2, "np_vol": 11.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["检验检测服务收入", 46.0], ["检验检测(电缆检测)", 45.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.4, "ret_prev2_year": -11.0, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": 27.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -3.9, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -16.3, "mdd_250": -43.2, "vol_250": 40.5, "pos_52w": 63.8}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 73, "hard": 41, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.6 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 60.7%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.7%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 3.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -4% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "国缆检测:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}