{"F": {"ts_code": "301288.SZ", "name": "清研环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.11, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3671, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 184805.11, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.0, 56.1, 45.6, 49.2, 51.4, 18.1], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.1, 1.1, 1.4, 0.7, 1.8], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.1, 0.2, -0.2, -0.2], "roe_series": [35.9, 22.2, 2.1, 2.5, -2.2, -2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.3, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": -2.1, "gm_median": 49.2, "gm_std": 13.4, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -15.4, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 3.2, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 4.02, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 31.8, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": 52.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 17.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 199.8, "np_yoy": -508.7, "np_vol": 87.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["固危废处置及资源化产品", 18.0], ["危固废处置及资源化产品", 18.0], ["污水处理工艺包销售", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.8, "ret_ytd": -4.7, "ret_pivot": 34.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": 10.3, "mdd_250": -33.1, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 82.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 56, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 49.2%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.2%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 4.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -11% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "清研环境:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.8个百分点。"]}}