{"F": {"ts_code": "301287.SZ", "name": "康力源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230614", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.54, "pe_ttm": 54.846, "pb": 2.4325, "dv_ttm": 0.9873, "total_mv": 283614.6054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.0, 27.2, 25.6, 32.6, 32.2, 31.8], "rev_series": [6.7, 7.0, 6.1, 6.1, 6.9, 5.9], "np_series": [0.9, 0.8, 0.8, 1.0, 0.8, 0.7], "roe_series": [43.8, 28.8, 23.9, 13.1, 7.3, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.6, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.43, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 35.3, "debt_mv": 12.4, "payout": 40.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 8.2, "np_yoy": -60.6, "np_vol": 13.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 43.9, "fwd_pe2": 38.3, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 3.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["室内健身器材", 47.0], ["室外健身器材", 2.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.2, "ret_ytd": 2.6, "ret_pivot": 92.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.8, "ret_60": 18.5, "ret_120": -0.3, "ret_250": 1.3, "mdd_250": -32.8, "vol_250": 34.7, "pos_52w": 91.9}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 52, "hard": 7, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.8 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 18% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "康力源:PE 比行业中位高 7.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.9个百分点。"]}}