{"F": {"ts_code": "301286.SZ", "name": "侨源股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220614", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.24, "pe_ttm": 69.9576, "pb": 9.1784, "dv_ttm": 1.0225, "total_mv": 1770042.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.1, 39.3, 30.7, 34.2, 33.1, 36.8], "rev_series": [7.3, 8.3, 9.2, 10.2, 10.2, 10.8], "np_series": [2.3, 1.8, 1.2, 2.0, 1.5, 2.3], "roe_series": [33.8, 24.9, 9.8, 12.3, 8.6, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.4, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 34.2, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -18.3, "npm_median": 19.8, "roe_median": 12.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.9, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.18, "capex_dep": 0.27, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 14.1, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 21.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": 25.7, "rev_yoy": 12.2, "np_yoy": 17.6, "np_vol": 45.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["氧气", 45.0], ["氮气", 33.0], ["其他业务", 14.0], ["氩气", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.9, "ret_prev2_year": 22.6, "ret_ytd": 5.8, "ret_pivot": 56.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": -31.2, "ret_120": -7.5, "ret_250": 62.3, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 67.0, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 53, "hard": 83, "bondness": 29}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 12 亿,占总资产 52%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.4%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 93%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 52%)和定价权(毛利率 34.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 0.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 62%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -31% / -8%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "侨源股份:PE 比行业中位高 34.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点。"]}}