{"F": {"ts_code": "301285.SZ", "name": "鸿日达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 83.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 18.9601, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1735614.66, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.1, 27.0, 23.7, 19.6, 19.0, 14.5], "rev_series": [6.1, 6.2, 5.9, 7.2, 8.3, 10.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.3, -0.1, -0.7], "roe_series": [27.3, 21.4, 7.2, 2.9, -0.7, -6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.1, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 19.6, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.3, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 18.96, "capex_dep": 2.31, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 51.6, "debt_ratio": 55.0, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 62.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 19.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.7, "np_yoy": -532.1, "np_vol": 300.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 479.9, "fwd_pe2": 35.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 1246.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["消费电子产品", 32.0], ["光伏产品", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 136.7, "ret_prev2_year": 80.8, "ret_ytd": 23.9, "ret_pivot": 287.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.0, "ret_60": -20.1, "ret_120": 6.6, "ret_250": 64.9, "mdd_250": -55.0, "vol_250": 65.6, "pos_52w": 62.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 66, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 51.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 2.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 65%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -20% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "鸿日达:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点。"]}}