{"F": {"ts_code": "301283.SZ", "name": "聚胶股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "胶黏剂及胶带", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.01, "pe_ttm": 16.0247, "pb": 1.7985, "dv_ttm": 4.6534, "total_mv": 290673.1128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 13.6, 15.7, 15.0, 12.4, 20.4], "rev_series": [8.8, 10.5, 13.5, 16.3, 20.1, 21.5], "np_series": [0.8, 0.5, 0.9, 1.1, 0.8, 1.9], "roe_series": [29.6, 15.8, 9.9, 7.3, 5.1, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.0, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.8, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.8, "capex_dep": 3.39, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 38.7, "debt_mv": 18.4, "payout": 70.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 29.9, "rev_yoy": 35.5, "np_yoy": -12.1, "np_vol": 64.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["热熔压敏胶", 47.0], ["卫材热熔胶", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 101.1, "ret_prev2_year": -22.1, "ret_ytd": -21.6, "ret_pivot": 93.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 42.3, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 43, "hard": 24, "bondness": 61}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 4.7%、营收 3 年复合 16.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.0 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -3% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "聚胶股份:PE 比行业中位低 19.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.7个百分点。"]}}