{"F": {"ts_code": "301278.SZ", "name": "快可电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220804", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.45, "pe_ttm": 109.5002, "pb": 1.7854, "dv_ttm": 0.1406, "total_mv": 255219.5445, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.8, 18.4, 18.7, 23.3, 17.8, 8.9], "rev_series": [5.0, 7.4, 11.0, 12.8, 9.0, 10.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 1.2, 1.9, 1.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [21.2, 18.2, 17.0, 17.7, 8.1, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -4.0, "ocf_yield": -2.5, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 17.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.4, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 1.48, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 17.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.5, "np_cagr3": -44.3, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": 21.7, "np_vol": 62.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["接线盒", 38.0], ["配件及其他", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.9, "ret_prev2_year": -40.1, "ret_ytd": -14.8, "ret_pivot": -3.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": -11.0, "ret_120": -37.6, "ret_250": -21.6, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 45.0, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 39, "hard": 28, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 109.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.0%(经营现金流/市值 -2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.48 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -11% / -38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "快可电子:PE 比行业中位高 68.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}