{"F": {"ts_code": "301276.SZ", "name": "嘉曼服饰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.68, "pe_ttm": 23.3558, "pb": 1.1423, "dv_ttm": 2.6767, "total_mv": 242092.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.7, 59.2, 59.7, 59.8, 62.0, 63.2], "rev_series": [10.4, 12.1, 11.4, 11.5, 11.0, 11.2], "np_series": [1.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.8, 1.7, 1.1], "roe_series": [24.0, 30.4, 12.8, 9.3, 8.3, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 59.8, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 15.6, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 4.22, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 15.0, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": -14.0, "rev_yoy": 12.3, "np_yoy": -2.9, "np_vol": 34.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["外套", 19.0], ["上衣", 18.0], ["裤子", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.9, "ret_prev2_year": -14.7, "ret_ytd": -36.6, "ret_pivot": 40.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -18.8, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -19.3, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 56.0, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 74, "hard": 6, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.4 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 59.8%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 59.8%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 4.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -19% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "嘉曼服饰:PE 比行业中位低 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}