{"F": {"ts_code": "301275.SZ", "name": "汉朔科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.37, "pe_ttm": 31.6547, "pb": 4.2454, "dv_ttm": 0.234, "total_mv": 1789708.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 22.2, 19.5, 32.6, 34.8, 31.0], "rev_series": [11.9, 16.1, 28.6, 37.8, 44.9, 42.1], "np_series": [0.8, -0.1, 2.1, 6.8, 7.1, 4.5], "roe_series": [10.6, -0.7, 17.3, 40.9, 30.1, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.4, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 31.0, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -11.2, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 17.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 4.25, "capex_dep": 20.85, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 46.3, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 8.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 13.7, "np_cagr3": 29.6, "rev_yoy": 47.2, "np_yoy": 51.2, "np_vol": 1294.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 28.7, "fwd_pe2": 21.0, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["电子价签终端", 44.0], ["配件及其他产品", 2.0], ["配件及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -20.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": 7.3, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 46.4, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 47, "hard": 9, "bondness": 13}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 51%,PE TTM 31.7 倍 但前瞻 PE 28.7 倍,PEG 0.80。", "自由现金流 1.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 36%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 20.85 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.7 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 7% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "汉朔科技:PE 比行业中位低 19.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}