{"F": {"ts_code": "301269.SZ", "name": "华大九天", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220729", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 89.7, "pe_ttm": 3823.8129, "pb": 9.4919, "dv_ttm": 0.1665, "total_mv": 4914435.5926, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [87.3, 89.4, 90.3, 93.8, 93.3, 89.3], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.8, 8.0, 10.1, 12.2, 13.2], "np_series": [1.0, 1.4, 1.9, 2.0, 1.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [15.4, 15.0, 6.6, 4.3, 2.2, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 90.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 19.9, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 9.49, "capex_dep": 3.17, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": -31.0, "rev_yoy": 12.9, "np_yoy": -1568.9, "np_vol": 35.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 295.9, "fwd_pe2": 202.0, "fwd_g1": 1192.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 6.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["EDA软件销售", 38.0], ["技术服务", 9.0], ["硬件、代理软件销售及其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.1, "ret_prev2_year": 14.6, "ret_ytd": -15.5, "ret_pivot": 23.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": -4.1, "ret_250": -27.9, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 55.9, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 89, "hard": 16, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 3823.8 倍,估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 295.9 倍,次年 202.0 倍,PEG 6.30。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 90.3%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 90.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 3823.8 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -7% / -4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "华大九天:PE 比行业中位高 3741.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 41.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}