{"F": {"ts_code": "301265.SZ", "name": "华新科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.66, "pe_ttm": 88.8043, "pb": 2.671, "dv_ttm": 0.5264, "total_mv": 565347.9576, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.1, 33.8, 27.9, 25.2, 17.6, 21.0], "rev_series": [5.7, 7.8, 7.5, 7.3, 6.4, 8.6], "np_series": [1.3, 1.6, 1.1, 0.9, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [17.4, 17.3, 7.4, 4.4, 2.3, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_ttm": -5.8, "fcf_yield": -10.2, "ocf_yield": -3.3, "gm_median": 25.2, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -12.2, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.7, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 2.67, "capex_dep": 11.83, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 37.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": -18.6, "rev_yoy": 15.4, "np_yoy": 9.2, "np_vol": 28.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["电子废弃物拆解", 21.0], ["危险废物处置服务", 10.0], ["危险废物处置", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.8, "ret_ytd": 35.1, "ret_pivot": 146.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": -6.9, "ret_250": 55.0, "mdd_250": -47.2, "vol_250": 61.7, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 44, "hard": 48, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 88.8 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 11.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 55%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -26% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "华新科技:PE 比行业中位高 62.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点。"]}}