{"F": {"ts_code": "301261.SZ", "name": "恒工精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230710", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.25, "pe_ttm": 46.7956, "pb": 3.6253, "dv_ttm": 0.8889, "total_mv": 593259.1875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.0, 24.5, 22.7, 25.6, 24.5, 23.1], "rev_series": [5.3, 8.8, 8.6, 8.8, 10.3, 11.0], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 1.1, 1.3, 0.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [16.1, 19.2, 17.0, 11.8, 4.6, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.0, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.2, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.63, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 9.6, "payout": 59.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.4, "np_cagr3": -5.5, "rev_yoy": 37.4, "np_yoy": 57.0, "np_vol": 37.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 29.0], ["精密机加工件", 17.0], ["精密机加工件：液压装备件", 9.0], ["液压装备", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 152.5, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": -34.0, "ret_pivot": 125.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -19.7, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 50, "hard": 66, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 46.8 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%、固定资产占比 41%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -20% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "恒工精密:PE 比行业中位低 3.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.4个百分点。"]}}