{"F": {"ts_code": "301256.SZ", "name": "华融化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.33, "pe_ttm": 70.9625, "pb": 2.9021, "dv_ttm": 1.3553, "total_mv": 495840.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 25.5, 16.7, 18.9, 15.8, 9.2], "rev_series": [9.5, 6.4, 11.4, 10.6, 12.1, 16.9], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [21.2, 16.9, 10.6, 8.1, 5.8, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.4, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.9, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 24.2, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 81.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": -16.2, "rev_yoy": -1.9, "np_yoy": -5.8, "np_vol": 20.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["供应链管理业务", 52.0], ["钾产品", 42.0], ["氯产品", 6.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.5, "ret_prev2_year": -4.8, "ret_ytd": -23.4, "ret_pivot": 83.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": -14.8, "ret_120": -32.5, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 64.2, "pos_52w": 55.2}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 36, "hard": 20, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 71.0 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -15% / -32%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "华融化学:PE 比行业中位高 35.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 35.0个百分点。"]}}