{"F": {"ts_code": "301255.SZ", "name": "通力科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.8, "pe_ttm": 131.8464, "pb": 2.8437, "dv_ttm": 0.6061, "total_mv": 301593.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.5, 31.3, 30.4, 27.6, 25.0, 23.0], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.7, 4.7, 4.7, 4.3, 4.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 1.0, 0.8, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [21.6, 27.6, 13.8, 7.8, 5.0, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 17.3, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.84, "capex_dep": 2.3, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 31.6, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.6, "np_cagr3": -23.3, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": -104.3, "np_vol": 34.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["通用减速机", 31.0], ["工业齿轮箱", 9.0], ["电机", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.4, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": -32.0, "ret_pivot": 12.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": -14.9, "ret_120": -24.3, "ret_250": -42.0, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 44.8, "pos_52w": 56.9}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 52, "hard": 60, "bondness": 48}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 131.8 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.30 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 131.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -15% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "通力科技:PE 比行业中位高 81.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点。"]}}