{"F": {"ts_code": "301252.SZ", "name": "同星科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.5, "pe_ttm": 67.8402, "pb": 4.5371, "dv_ttm": 0.3288, "total_mv": 617672.856, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 20.8, 21.5, 23.9, 20.9, 19.3], "rev_series": [5.0, 7.8, 8.1, 9.8, 11.3, 12.9], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.8, 1.2, 1.3, 1.1], "roe_series": [16.8, 20.2, 19.9, 14.8, 10.7, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.5, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 14.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 4.54, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 32.7, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 22.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 16.7, "np_cagr3": 8.8, "rev_yoy": 26.3, "np_yoy": -25.5, "np_vol": 22.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 53.7, "fwd_pe2": 44.0, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 2.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["制冷零部件及产品", 82.0], ["汽车空调系统零部件", 8.0], ["其他业务收入", 5.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.3, "ret_prev2_year": 20.9, "ret_ytd": 12.7, "ret_pivot": 142.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.7, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": 20.7, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 60.1, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 49, "hard": 24, "bondness": 17}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 53.7 倍,次年 44.0 倍,PEG 2.44。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 4.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / -3% / -12%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "同星科技:PE 比行业中位高 17.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}