{"F": {"ts_code": "301246.SZ", "name": "宏源药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.23, "pe_ttm": 25.9412, "pb": 1.5836, "dv_ttm": 0.2721, "total_mv": 729212.3964, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.4, 33.6, 23.3, 13.0, 12.2, 18.8], "rev_series": [13.0, 15.8, 20.6, 20.5, 17.7, 19.4], "np_series": [2.6, 4.9, 4.3, 0.9, 0.5, 1.2], "roe_series": [24.4, 34.5, 22.9, 2.7, 1.2, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.0, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": -15.1, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.1, "fix_assets": 25.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 1.2, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 28.2, "debt_mv": 9.0, "payout": 22.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.0, "np_cagr3": -35.1, "rev_yoy": 52.1, "np_yoy": 2788.9, "np_vol": 80.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 9.4, "fwd_pe2": 5.6, "fwd_g1": 176.0, "fwd_g2": 68.0, "peg": 0.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["锂电池材料", 19.0], ["原料药及医药中间体", 16.0], ["医药中间体及原料药", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.5, "ret_prev2_year": -48.0, "ret_ytd": -26.9, "ret_pivot": 68.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.7, "ret_60": -32.0, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": 16.6, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 62.5, "pos_52w": 53.1}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 33, "hard": 63, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -32% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "宏源药业:PE 比行业中位低 11.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 33.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}