{"F": {"ts_code": "301237.SZ", "name": "和顺科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220323", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.89, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5478, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 410476.8745, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 32.0, 19.9, 14.0, 7.4, 8.8], "rev_series": [3.8, 6.4, 5.0, 4.2, 5.0, 6.0], "np_series": [0.7, 1.2, 0.7, 0.1, -0.5, -1.8], "roe_series": [23.8, 30.1, 6.6, 1.0, -3.4, -14.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -7.0, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 8.9, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": -15.9, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.1, "fix_assets": 11.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.55, "capex_dep": 4.09, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.3, "debt_ratio": 34.2, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.5, "np_yoy": 154.4, "np_vol": 176.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["透明膜", 27.0], ["PVC透明膜", 27.0], ["有色光电基膜", 19.0], ["光电膜", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 142.3, "ret_prev2_year": -21.0, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 179.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -18.0, "ret_120": -15.2, "ret_250": 29.8, "mdd_250": -45.5, "vol_250": 71.2, "pos_52w": 60.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 23, "hard": 100, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 63%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 63%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 36%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 63%,资本开支/折旧 4.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -18% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "和顺科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.2个百分点。"]}}