{"F": {"ts_code": "301236.SZ", "name": "软通动力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.62, "pe_ttm": 463.3337, "pb": 2.9745, "dv_ttm": 0.1329, "total_mv": 3894382.1466, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 24.7, 21.3, 19.3, 12.5, 11.2], "rev_series": [130.0, 166.2, 191.0, 175.8, 313.2, 350.9], "np_series": [12.6, 9.4, 9.7, 5.3, 1.8, 2.1], "roe_series": [33.9, 20.5, 12.9, 5.2, 1.7, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 379.2, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -37.1, "fcf_ttm": -41.6, "fcf_yield": -10.7, "ocf_yield": -9.5, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 21.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 2.01, "interest_debt": 108.4, "debt_ebitda": 18.5, "debt_ratio": 61.5, "debt_mv": 27.8, "payout": 32.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 22.5, "np_cagr3": -40.4, "rev_yoy": 17.9, "np_yoy": -85.6, "np_vol": 29.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 112.5, "fwd_pe2": 80.7, "fwd_g1": 312.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 2.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["计算产品与智能电子", 25.0], ["软件与数字技术服务", 24.0], ["数字能源与智算服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.1, "ret_prev2_year": 27.7, "ret_ytd": -20.6, "ret_pivot": 2.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": -38.5, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 51.0, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 10, "bondness": 27}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 463.3 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 112.5 倍,次年 80.7 倍,PEG 2.88。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.7%(经营现金流/市值 -9.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 463.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -8% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "软通动力:PE 比行业中位高 379.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}