{"F": {"ts_code": "301232.SZ", "name": "飞沃科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 99.1, "pe_ttm": 854.6059, "pb": 7.4677, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1043388.224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.5, 17.8, 18.6, 17.0, 7.7, 15.5], "rev_series": [12.0, 11.3, 13.4, 16.4, 17.9, 25.7], "np_series": [1.6, 0.8, 0.9, 0.6, -1.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [38.6, 14.3, 14.3, 5.1, -10.8, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.3, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -8.9, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.1, "fix_assets": 9.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 7.47, "capex_dep": 3.01, "interest_debt": 21.8, "debt_ebitda": 9.0, "debt_ratio": 72.3, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 24.2, "np_cagr3": -25.1, "rev_yoy": 13.9, "np_yoy": -81.1, "np_vol": 168.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 92.9, "fwd_pe2": 51.8, "fwd_g1": 820.0, "fwd_g2": 79.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["紧固件销售", 29.0], ["紧固件", 29.0], ["零部件", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 581.7, "ret_prev2_year": -28.4, "ret_ytd": -17.6, "ret_pivot": 532.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.8, "ret_60": -15.2, "ret_120": -22.2, "ret_250": 249.3, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 96.5, "pos_52w": 54.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 29, "bondness": 44}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 854.6 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 92.9 倍,次年 51.8 倍,PEG 1.18。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.01 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 854.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 249%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 96%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -15% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "飞沃科技:PE 比行业中位高 822.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}