{"F": {"ts_code": "301231.SZ", "name": "荣信文化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0021, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 242228.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.4, 36.2, 35.5, 35.8, 33.9, 37.8], "rev_series": [3.8, 3.8, 3.2, 2.7, 2.7, 3.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, -0.4, -0.2], "roe_series": [12.6, 9.9, 3.5, 1.1, -5.0, -2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.9, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 3.0, "capex_dep": 37.84, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.8, "np_yoy": -852.4, "np_vol": 216.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 956.7, "fwd_pe2": 124.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 667.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["少儿图书策划与发行", 33.0], ["原版图书销售", 10.0], ["AI剧/漫剧", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.9, "ret_prev2_year": -29.2, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 90.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": -10.0, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": 7.0, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 85.0, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 19, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 15%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.8%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 37.84 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -10% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "荣信文化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}