{"F": {"ts_code": "301230.SZ", "name": "泓博医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.61, "pe_ttm": 140.0232, "pb": 5.2917, "dv_ttm": 0.951, "total_mv": 535766.5971, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.6, 38.7, 36.9, 30.9, 23.9, 27.4], "rev_series": [2.8, 4.5, 4.8, 4.9, 5.4, 6.9], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [21.0, 24.1, 9.2, 3.4, 1.6, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 30.9, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.29, "capex_dep": 2.25, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 22.3, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 148.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": -20.1, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": 16.0, "np_vol": 58.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["药物发现", 25.0], ["医药研发服务", 25.0], ["商业化生产", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.1, "ret_prev2_year": -6.3, "ret_ytd": 30.2, "ret_pivot": 112.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.7, "ret_60": 19.2, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": -6.0, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 73.4, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 48, "hard": 25, "bondness": 51}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 140.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 140.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 19% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "泓博医药:PE 比行业中位高 66.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}