{"F": {"ts_code": "301229.SZ", "name": "纽泰格", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.31, "pe_ttm": 10940.3034, "pb": 1.8143, "dv_ttm": 0.4376, "total_mv": 223771.7955, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 24.2, 19.5, 24.4, 23.5, 20.7], "rev_series": [5.0, 5.5, 6.9, 9.0, 9.8, 10.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [16.8, 13.1, 6.8, 8.6, 5.7, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -9.5, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 23.5, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.1, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 1.81, "capex_dep": 4.84, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 36.5, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 22.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.7, "np_cagr3": -2.8, "rev_yoy": 18.1, "np_yoy": -190.7, "np_vol": 39.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["汽车悬架系统", 23.0], ["汽车其他系统", 18.0], ["汽车动力系统", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.4, "ret_ytd": -45.7, "ret_pivot": 3.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": -10.3, "ret_120": -34.1, "ret_250": -46.3, "mdd_250": -57.1, "vol_250": 38.3, "pos_52w": 49.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 66, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10940.3 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%、固定资产占比 41%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 4.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10940.3 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -10% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "纽泰格:PE 比行业中位高 10910.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.6个百分点。"]}}