{"F": {"ts_code": "301227.SZ", "name": "森鹰窗业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.89, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8012, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 445514.2121, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.6, 29.7, 33.3, 36.2, 20.3, 20.1], "rev_series": [8.4, 9.6, 8.9, 9.4, 5.7, 6.1], "np_series": [1.3, 1.3, 1.1, 1.5, -0.4, -0.5], "roe_series": [19.0, 16.2, 8.2, 8.0, -2.4, -2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 29.7, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 2.13, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -11.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.9, "np_yoy": -202.6, "np_vol": 55.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 178.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["节能铝包木窗产品", 37.0], ["节能铝包木窗", 37.0], ["铝合金窗", 21.0], ["幕墙及阳光房", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 227.3, "ret_prev2_year": -39.0, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 228.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 31.0, "ret_60": 36.5, "ret_120": 26.5, "ret_250": 39.8, "mdd_250": -55.5, "vol_250": 62.2, "pos_52w": 89.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 53, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 36% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "森鹰窗业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}