{"F": {"ts_code": "301225.SZ", "name": "恒勃股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230616", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.52, "pe_ttm": 66.7068, "pb": 4.8203, "dv_ttm": 0.3887, "total_mv": 785590.6744, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 35.1, 33.0, 31.3, 32.5, 29.1], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.3, 7.1, 7.9, 8.7, 11.4], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [26.0, 27.8, 23.4, 11.9, 9.0, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 32.5, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 4.82, "capex_dep": 6.45, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 16.9, "np_cagr3": 9.5, "rev_yoy": 61.2, "np_yoy": -28.0, "np_vol": 15.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 34.9, "fwd_pe2": 27.5, "fwd_g1": 91.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 1.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["汽车进气系统及配件", 14.0], ["汽车发动机进出气系统零件", 14.0], ["汽车内外饰件", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 539.8, "ret_prev2_year": -25.5, "ret_ytd": -53.8, "ret_pivot": 253.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -12.8, "ret_120": -33.5, "ret_250": -5.2, "mdd_250": -63.7, "vol_250": 73.5, "pos_52w": 44.2}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 55, "hard": 57, "bondness": 18}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 9 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -3.5%,股息率 0.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 93%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 32.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 6.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -13% / -34%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "恒勃股份:PE 比行业中位高 36.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点。"]}}