{"F": {"ts_code": "301223.SZ", "name": "中荣股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20221026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.79, "pe_ttm": 21.9183, "pb": 1.1541, "dv_ttm": 1.9499, "total_mv": 343574.0004, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 22.1, 22.4, 20.9, 18.3, 20.0], "rev_series": [21.8, 25.4, 24.7, 25.9, 27.8, 31.7], "np_series": [1.9, 2.1, 2.1, 2.0, 1.4, 1.5], "roe_series": [17.8, 17.8, 10.7, 7.4, 5.0, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.3, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 9.6, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.5, "fix_assets": 14.4, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 30.5, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": 43.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": -10.4, "rev_yoy": 11.6, "np_yoy": 4.4, "np_vol": 14.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["折叠彩盒", 61.0], ["礼盒", 15.0], ["其他印刷包装产品", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.0, "ret_prev2_year": -10.0, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 32.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": 11.2, "ret_120": -8.5, "ret_250": -0.9, "mdd_250": -27.2, "vol_250": 27.2, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 50, "hard": 52, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.9 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.6%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.9 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 11% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "中荣股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}