{"F": {"ts_code": "301220.SZ", "name": "亚香股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.7, "pe_ttm": 103.5851, "pb": 1.7513, "dv_ttm": 0.5593, "total_mv": 301728.407, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.0, 33.9, 35.5, 32.2, 25.5, 26.4], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.2, 7.1, 6.3, 8.0, 10.4], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.3, 0.8, 0.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [12.7, 13.1, 11.5, 5.1, 3.5, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 7.1, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": 18.7, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.6, "np_cagr3": -4.3, "rev_yoy": 15.8, "np_yoy": -78.6, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.6, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 523.0, "fwd_g2": 48.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["天然香料", 24.0], ["凉味剂", 15.0], ["合成香料", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.8, "ret_prev2_year": 12.9, "ret_ytd": -29.0, "ret_pivot": 65.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -25.9, "ret_120": -38.4, "ret_250": -46.4, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 56, "hard": 61, "bondness": 28}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 10 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.2%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 95%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(毛利率 32.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -26% / -38%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "亚香股份:PE 比行业中位高 67.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点。"]}}