{"F": {"ts_code": "301219.SZ", "name": "腾远钴业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "钴", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220317", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.27, "pe_ttm": 10.8785, "pb": 1.6693, "dv_ttm": 3.5436, "total_mv": 1656511.0351, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 41.6, 23.4, 18.8, 22.1, 27.7], "rev_series": [17.9, 41.6, 48.0, 55.4, 65.4, 83.4], "np_series": [5.1, 11.5, 2.7, 3.8, 6.9, 11.1], "roe_series": [29.0, 41.6, 4.7, 4.5, 7.9, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 109.0, "np_ttm": 15.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": -7.1, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 23.4, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 26.0, "fix_assets": 37.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.67, "capex_dep": 2.96, "interest_debt": 9.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 31.1, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 53.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.2, "np_cagr3": 59.4, "rev_yoy": 72.4, "np_yoy": 87.8, "np_vol": 67.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 7.0, "fwd_pe2": 6.8, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 3.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铜产品", 43.0], ["钴产品", 26.0], ["其他主营业务", 16.0], ["其他", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 57.5, "ret_prev2_year": 20.8, "ret_ytd": -16.4, "ret_pivot": 77.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.6, "ret_60": -19.7, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": -15.8, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 55.5, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 42, "bondness": 41}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 53%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 20.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 23.4%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.9 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -20% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "腾远钴业:PE 比行业中位低 7.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}