{"F": {"ts_code": "301217.SZ", "name": "铜冠铜箔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 100.87, "pe_ttm": 344.7291, "pb": 14.9065, "dv_ttm": 0.0198, "total_mv": 8362279.3485, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.5, 15.7, 10.0, 2.3, -0.6, 3.6], "rev_series": [24.6, 40.8, 38.7, 37.8, 47.2, 66.9], "np_series": [0.7, 3.7, 2.7, 0.2, -1.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [4.4, 19.4, 6.9, 0.3, -2.9, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 77.1, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 3.6, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": -0.63, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.4, "fix_assets": 29.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.91, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 15.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 29.1, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 162.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 20.0, "np_cagr3": -38.2, "rev_yoy": 34.2, "np_yoy": 514.7, "np_vol": 479.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 179.2, "fwd_pe2": 108.8, "fwd_g1": 92.0, "fwd_g2": 65.0, "peg": 2.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["PCB铜箔", 31.0], ["锂电池铜箔", 17.0], ["铜扁线等", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 209.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": 194.3, "ret_pivot": 1066.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": 145.2, "ret_250": 183.5, "mdd_250": -61.2, "vol_250": 92.4, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 10, "hard": 60, "bondness": 43}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.6%,稳定度 -63%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.6%,稳定度 -63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 344.7 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 184%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 92%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -21% / 145%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "铜冠铜箔:PE 比行业中位高 308.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.6个百分点。"]}}