{"F": {"ts_code": "301216.SZ", "name": "万凯新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.6, "pe_ttm": 17.697, "pb": 1.8216, "dv_ttm": 0.7271, "total_mv": 1195221.064, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.0, 7.4, 7.6, 4.0, 0.9, 3.5], "rev_series": [93.0, 95.9, 193.9, 175.3, 172.3, 154.9], "np_series": [2.0, 4.4, 9.6, 4.4, -3.0, 1.7], "roe_series": [15.8, 28.2, 25.9, 7.7, -5.4, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 169.3, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": -14.6, "fcf_yield": -12.2, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 4.0, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.5, "fix_assets": 88.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 3.23, "interest_debt": 95.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.3, "debt_ratio": 67.9, "debt_mv": 80.1, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.2, "np_cagr3": -43.9, "rev_yoy": 17.5, "np_yoy": 910.1, "np_vol": 124.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 10.2, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["瓶级PET产品", 48.0], ["瓶级PET", 48.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.8, "ret_prev2_year": -27.6, "ret_ytd": 23.3, "ret_pivot": 131.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.1, "ret_60": -15.8, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": 20.3, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 57.0, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 24, "hard": 68, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.0%,稳定度 36%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.0%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 3.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.7 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -16% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "万凯新材:PE 比行业中位低 23.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}