{"F": {"ts_code": "301215.SZ", "name": "中汽股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车服务", "sw3": "汽车综合服务", "ind": "汽车服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.36, "pe_ttm": 28.7447, "pb": 2.3867, "dv_ttm": 1.847, "total_mv": 709610.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.3, 70.1, 69.0, 72.5, 72.3, 63.7], "rev_series": [2.9, 3.0, 3.2, 3.6, 4.0, 5.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 2.1], "roe_series": [7.8, 7.5, 6.8, 5.9, 5.9, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 70.1, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 41.7, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.7, "fix_assets": 20.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.35, "capex_dep": 2.9, "interest_debt": 12.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 17.7, "payout": 61.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.2, "np_cagr3": 14.3, "rev_yoy": 15.3, "np_yoy": 35.3, "np_vol": 13.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["场地试验技术服务业务", 49.0], ["场地试验技术服务", 49.0], ["租赁及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.1, "ret_prev2_year": -2.0, "ret_ytd": -21.0, "ret_pivot": 9.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": -16.4, "mdd_250": -35.1, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 75, "hard": 67, "bondness": 41}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 21 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 70.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.3%,股息率 1.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(毛利率 70.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 70.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.7 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 7% / -18%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车服务」10 家中位:PE 28.7 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 10.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 56%。", "中汽股份:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 59.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.6个百分点。"]}}