{"F": {"ts_code": "301213.SZ", "name": "观想科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.08, "pe_ttm": 441.4545, "pb": 5.7006, "dv_ttm": 0.1782, "total_mv": 448896.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.1, 69.0, 59.4, 62.6, 62.5, 61.3], "rev_series": [1.6, 1.6, 1.0, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.2, -0.0, -0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [35.2, 11.6, 2.2, -0.3, -1.1, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 62.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.8, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.7, "capex_dep": 9.94, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 19.4, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 60.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 27.9, "np_cagr3": -8.9, "rev_yoy": 19.8, "np_yoy": -220.3, "np_vol": 184.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["智能装备", 25.0], ["智能武器装备管模块", 25.0], ["人工智能", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.2, "ret_prev2_year": 6.9, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 88.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.9, "ret_60": -16.1, "ret_120": -22.0, "ret_250": -20.7, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 62.9, "pos_52w": 52.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 68, "hard": 32, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 441 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.5%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 9.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 441.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -16% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "观想科技:PE 比行业中位高 362.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}