{"F": {"ts_code": "301210.SZ", "name": "金杨精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.34, "pe_ttm": 47.9098, "pb": 2.1511, "dv_ttm": 0.9823, "total_mv": 408377.1594, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.9, 24.8, 18.1, 14.4, 12.1, 12.3], "rev_series": [7.5, 11.8, 12.3, 11.1, 13.6, 17.7], "np_series": [0.7, 1.5, 1.1, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [20.7, 31.0, 17.4, 4.9, 3.1, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_yield": -10.2, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 14.4, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 13.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 4.9, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 48.5, "debt_mv": 30.1, "payout": 66.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": -22.2, "rev_yoy": 59.6, "np_yoy": 177.7, "np_vol": 59.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电池精密结构件", 67.0], ["镍基导体材料", 20.0], ["其他业务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.4, "ret_prev2_year": -32.2, "ret_ytd": -2.1, "ret_pivot": 105.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": -9.6, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": -27.1, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 34, "hard": 51, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 4.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.9 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -10% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "金杨精密:PE 比行业中位高 12.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点。"]}}