{"F": {"ts_code": "301209.SZ", "name": "联合化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.5, "pe_ttm": 364.7594, "pb": 12.0273, "dv_ttm": 0.2609, "total_mv": 901600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 20.5, 17.3, 15.6, 19.1, 20.1], "rev_series": [4.7, 5.5, 5.4, 4.3, 5.3, 5.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.6, 0.3, 0.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [24.3, 21.6, 12.7, 5.0, 8.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 8.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.03, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 23.1, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 39.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": -6.4, "rev_yoy": -2.6, "np_yoy": -82.7, "np_vol": 37.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 359.4, "fwd_pe2": 319.4, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 29.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["颜料", 32.0], ["偶氮颜料", 32.0], ["挤水基墨", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 494.0, "ret_prev2_year": 9.4, "ret_ytd": -28.6, "ret_pivot": 483.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.2, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -11.5, "ret_250": -9.8, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 61.2, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 15, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 364.8 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 364.8 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / -6% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "联合化学:PE 比行业中位高 328.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.1个百分点。"]}}