{"F": {"ts_code": "301208.SZ", "name": "中亦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.45, "pe_ttm": 68.0617, "pb": 2.4103, "dv_ttm": 0.4134, "total_mv": 377400.3145, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.1, 27.5, 27.2, 25.0, 26.6, 23.5], "rev_series": [8.2, 11.8, 13.2, 14.0, 11.2, 11.5], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [22.2, 25.3, 14.9, 10.3, 5.8, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": -4.3, "gm_median": 26.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 27.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": -27.2, "rev_yoy": 74.7, "np_yoy": 4.2, "np_vol": 31.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["软硬件产品", 25.0], ["技术架构咨询与集成", 25.0], ["IT运行维护服务", 25.0], ["IT基础设施运维支持服务", 25.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.5, "ret_prev2_year": 19.9, "ret_ytd": -20.5, "ret_pivot": 20.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 12.4, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -36.1, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 38.3, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 51, "hard": 14, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 68.1 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 -4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 12% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "中亦科技:PE 比行业中位低 15.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}