{"F": {"ts_code": "301207.SZ", "name": "华兰疫苗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.13, "pe_ttm": 51.8498, "pb": 1.9556, "dv_ttm": 8.0908, "total_mv": 1029560.1075, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [89.4, 87.9, 88.1, 88.1, 81.2, 77.8], "rev_series": [24.3, 18.3, 18.3, 24.1, 11.3, 12.0], "np_series": [9.2, 6.2, 5.2, 8.6, 2.1, 1.8], "roe_series": [53.6, 24.9, 12.5, 14.6, 3.3, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.9, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 87.9, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 28.5, "roe_median": 12.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.9, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 0.09, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 16.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 58.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.0, "np_cagr3": -29.4, "rev_yoy": -26.0, "np_yoy": 75.2, "np_vol": 45.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 47.6, "fwd_pe2": 39.8, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 2.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["狂犬疫苗", 45.0], ["流感疫苗", 3.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.1, "ret_prev2_year": -37.9, "ret_ytd": -3.9, "ret_pivot": 21.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -8.2, "ret_250": -2.8, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 59.9, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 84, "hard": 22, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 58%、股息率 8.1%、营收 3 年复合 -13.0%、资产负债率 16%:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 87.9%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 87.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 7% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "华兰疫苗:PE 比行业中位高 19.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}