{"F": {"ts_code": "301203.SZ", "name": "国泰环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230404", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.6, "pe_ttm": 30.6301, "pb": 2.0446, "dv_ttm": 2.3121, "total_mv": 276800.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.0, 55.5, 52.3, 58.5, 54.5, 55.6], "rev_series": [4.6, 3.3, 3.8, 3.1, 3.2, 3.0], "np_series": [1.8, 1.4, 1.5, 1.4, 1.3, 1.1], "roe_series": [55.5, 32.5, 28.7, 13.9, 9.2, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 55.5, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 42.6, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 4.33, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 8.8, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 81.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": -8.5, "rev_yoy": 69.0, "np_yoy": -35.6, "np_vol": 9.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电池材料生产与循环利用", 26.0], ["污泥处理与污水处理提质增效服务", 24.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.0, "ret_prev2_year": -20.4, "ret_ytd": 8.7, "ret_pivot": 57.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.5, "ret_60": -22.8, "ret_120": -19.4, "ret_250": 10.5, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 39.0, "pos_52w": 66.2}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 68, "hard": 27, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.6 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 55.5%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.5%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 4.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -23% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "国泰环保:PE 比行业中位高 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点。"]}}