{"F": {"ts_code": "301200.SZ", "name": "大族数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 254.4, "pe_ttm": 81.9599, "pb": 10.3263, "dv_ttm": 0.2358, "total_mv": 12440358.432, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.9, 36.3, 37.3, 35.0, 28.1, 35.1], "rev_series": [22.1, 40.8, 27.9, 16.3, 33.4, 57.7], "np_series": [3.0, 7.0, 4.3, 1.4, 3.0, 8.2], "roe_series": [18.9, 33.1, 10.7, 2.6, 6.1, 14.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.8, "np_ttm": 15.2, "ocf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_ttm": -5.4, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 35.1, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.7, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 10.33, "capex_dep": 4.24, "interest_debt": 11.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.5, "np_cagr3": 23.8, "rev_yoy": 109.3, "np_yoy": 263.5, "np_vol": 97.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钻孔类设备", 70.0], ["检测类设备", 8.0], ["成型类设备", 8.0], ["曝光类设备", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 235.9, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": 115.3, "ret_pivot": 876.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -3.3, "ret_120": 70.9, "ret_250": 187.2, "mdd_250": -45.5, "vol_250": 78.9, "pos_52w": 65.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 59, "hard": 8, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 82.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.1%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 4.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 187%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -3% / 71%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "大族数控:PE 比行业中位高 39.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.3个百分点。"]}}