{"F": {"ts_code": "301198.SZ", "name": "喜悦智行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.02, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4454, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 220038.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.9, 36.7, 32.4, 26.3, 15.3, 14.3], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.6, 4.3, 4.0, 3.7, 4.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, -0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [17.8, 9.6, 7.1, 3.8, -1.3, -1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 9.0, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -9.5, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.4, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.45, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 57.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 0.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.5, "np_yoy": 20.3, "np_vol": 52.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["可循环包装产品", 20.0], ["租赁运营服务", 18.0], ["租赁及运营服务", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.2, "ret_ytd": 3.7, "ret_pivot": 73.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": 6.3, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 68.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 47, "bondness": 42}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -11% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "喜悦智行:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}