{"F": {"ts_code": "301195.SZ", "name": "北路智控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.14, "pe_ttm": 27.1957, "pb": 1.427, "dv_ttm": 2.2953, "total_mv": 345230.4572, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.3, 52.2, 49.7, 45.9, 41.7, 44.2], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.8, 7.6, 10.1, 11.3, 9.6], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, 2.0, 2.2, 2.0, 1.5], "roe_series": [41.5, 34.0, 15.1, 10.2, 8.6, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.4, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 45.9, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": 22.3, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 4.92, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 15.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 42.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.4, "np_cagr3": -8.6, "rev_yoy": -5.4, "np_yoy": -34.9, "np_vol": 24.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 20.0, "fwd_pe2": 17.0, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能监控", 28.0], ["融合通信", 17.0], ["矿山智能驾驶", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.9, "ret_prev2_year": -20.2, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 8.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -25.8, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -29.1, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 59, "hard": 18, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.2 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.9%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.9%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 4.92 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -26% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "北路智控:PE 比行业中位低 55.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}