{"F": {"ts_code": "301193.SZ", "name": "家联科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.76, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2175, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 475981.844, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 18.0, 22.2, 19.2, 17.6, 13.2], "rev_series": [10.3, 12.3, 19.8, 17.2, 23.3, 26.9], "np_series": [1.1, 0.7, 1.8, 0.5, 0.6, -0.8], "roe_series": [28.4, 7.8, 12.5, 2.8, 3.4, -4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.2, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.4, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.3, "fix_assets": 34.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 2.59, "interest_debt": 20.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 63.2, "debt_mv": 43.4, "payout": 84.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 65.5, "np_yoy": -40.9, "np_vol": 125.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 54.6, "fwd_pe2": 17.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 215.0, "peg": 0.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["塑料制品", 30.0], ["生物全降解制品", 10.0], ["完全生物降解塑料", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.5, "ret_prev2_year": -1.5, "ret_ytd": -8.4, "ret_pivot": 49.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.5, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": -24.7, "ret_250": -1.1, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 58.5, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 92, "bondness": 54}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 2.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -7% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "家联科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.7个百分点。"]}}