{"F": {"ts_code": "301191.SZ", "name": "菲菱科思", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 83.09, "pe_ttm": 103.4201, "pb": 4.7159, "dv_ttm": 0.1711, "total_mv": 805117.173, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 16.1, 15.5, 16.4, 17.0, 13.2], "rev_series": [15.1, 22.1, 23.5, 20.7, 16.8, 17.7], "np_series": [1.0, 1.7, 2.0, 1.4, 1.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [33.7, 40.4, 18.8, 8.9, 6.9, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": -2.2, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.4, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.72, "capex_dep": 1.65, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 48.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -9.0, "np_cagr3": -30.7, "rev_yoy": 40.0, "np_yoy": 59.0, "np_vol": 42.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 63.4, "fwd_pe2": 34.3, "fwd_g1": 63.0, "fwd_g2": 85.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["网络产品类", 30.0], ["网络产品", 30.0], ["设备控制类及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.6, "ret_prev2_year": -1.9, "ret_ytd": 8.4, "ret_pivot": 83.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": -11.4, "ret_120": -2.5, "ret_250": -0.2, "mdd_250": -38.9, "vol_250": 81.3, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 49, "hard": 10, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 103.4 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 63.4 倍,次年 34.3 倍,PEG 0.75。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -11% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "菲菱科思:PE 比行业中位高 18.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点。"]}}