{"F": {"ts_code": "301190.SZ", "name": "善水科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.29, "pe_ttm": 35.9269, "pb": 1.9654, "dv_ttm": 0.7846, "total_mv": 392570.1585, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.8, 38.5, 34.9, 35.9, 26.7, 30.8], "rev_series": [3.8, 5.5, 4.0, 5.0, 5.0, 7.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.4, 1.0, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [28.0, 11.8, 5.0, 1.0, 2.7, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.6, "fix_assets": 7.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 59.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 24.4, "np_cagr3": -10.5, "rev_yoy": 56.4, "np_yoy": 78.2, "np_vol": 77.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["氯代吡啶系列产品", 25.0], ["6-硝体、氧体", 18.0], ["其他收入", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -16.4, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 45.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -3.7, "ret_120": -24.7, "ret_250": -29.6, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 52.9, "pos_52w": 60.1}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 52, "hard": 52, "bondness": 25}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 7 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -3.3%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 34.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -4% / -25%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "善水科技:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.8个百分点。"]}}