{"F": {"ts_code": "301189.SZ", "name": "奥尼电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "品牌消费电子", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3804, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 922274.4764, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 30.9, 25.9, 24.1, 21.1, 14.2], "rev_series": [10.8, 9.6, 6.7, 5.2, 5.5, 9.5], "np_series": [1.9, 1.2, 0.6, -0.2, -0.9, -1.6], "roe_series": [84.8, 9.5, 2.8, -1.0, -3.9, -7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.7, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -10.8, "fcf_ttm": -13.8, "fcf_yield": -15.0, "ocf_yield": -11.8, "gm_median": 24.1, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -14.9, "npm_median": -4.4, "roe_median": -1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.38, "capex_dep": 4.79, "interest_debt": 18.5, "debt_ebitda": 78.1, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 20.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 215.4, "np_yoy": 126.2, "np_vol": 89.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 62.6, "fwd_pe2": 24.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 156.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["高性能计算设备", 27.0], ["音视频智能终端", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.8, "ret_ytd": 81.4, "ret_pivot": 306.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.5, "ret_60": -16.6, "ret_120": 88.2, "ret_250": 112.9, "mdd_250": -49.3, "vol_250": 68.8, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 50, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 -11.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.0%(经营现金流/市值 -11.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 4.79 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 113%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / -17% / 88%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "奥尼电子:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点。"]}}