{"F": {"ts_code": "301188.SZ", "name": "力诺药包", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20211111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.67, "pe_ttm": 310.7331, "pb": 4.7457, "dv_ttm": 0.2797, "total_mv": 927549.3922, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 25.0, 22.1, 17.4, 19.0, 21.1], "rev_series": [6.6, 8.9, 8.2, 9.5, 10.8, 9.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.2, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [17.9, 13.0, 8.4, 4.4, 4.2, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -4.8, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 21.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.0, "fix_assets": 10.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.75, "capex_dep": 2.7, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 31.0, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": -30.2, "rev_yoy": 34.9, "np_yoy": -23.9, "np_vol": 29.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 72.5, "fwd_pe2": 55.6, "fwd_g1": 329.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 2.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["耐热玻璃产品", 22.0], ["耐热玻璃", 22.0], ["药用玻璃", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.1, "ret_prev2_year": -15.7, "ret_ytd": 98.1, "ret_pivot": 204.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.8, "ret_60": -36.8, "ret_120": 95.5, "ret_250": 78.3, "mdd_250": -55.9, "vol_250": 76.0, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 59, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 310.7 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 310.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -37% / 96%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "力诺药包:PE 比行业中位高 272.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 34.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}