{"F": {"ts_code": "301187.SZ", "name": "欧圣电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "小家电", "sw3": "清洁小家电", "ind": "小家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20220422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.35, "pe_ttm": 197.3135, "pb": 2.5248, "dv_ttm": 1.3905, "total_mv": 365829.5725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.7, 23.5, 29.8, 35.8, 34.1, 28.9], "rev_series": [9.9, 13.1, 12.8, 12.2, 17.6, 19.8], "np_series": [1.4, 1.2, 1.6, 1.7, 2.5, 1.0], "roe_series": [42.6, 26.8, 16.6, 11.9, 17.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -5.7, "fcf_yield": -15.6, "ocf_yield": -7.2, "gm_median": 29.8, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 16.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.9, "fix_assets": 17.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 2.52, "capex_dep": 4.86, "interest_debt": 13.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 65.8, "debt_mv": 35.8, "payout": 84.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.6, "np_cagr3": -13.5, "rev_yoy": 54.3, "np_yoy": -74.7, "np_vol": 38.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 19.8, "fwd_pe2": 12.5, "fwd_g1": 898.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 0.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["吸尘器", 20.0], ["空压机", 15.0], ["配件及其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.8, "ret_prev2_year": 88.0, "ret_ytd": -46.3, "ret_pivot": 10.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.0, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": -35.4, "ret_250": -55.6, "mdd_250": -59.0, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 45.9}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 50, "hard": 67, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 197.3 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.6%(经营现金流/市值 -7.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 4.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 197.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -56%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -12% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小家电」23 家中位:PE 50.5 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 50%。", "欧圣电气:PE 比行业中位高 146.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.2个百分点。"]}}